Space & Astronomy/Space and Astronomy (October 1993).iso/mac/TEXT_ZIP/spacedig/V13_2/V13_290.ZIP/V13_290

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Subject: SPACE Digest V13 #290

SPACE Digest                                     Volume 13 : Issue 290

Today's Topics:
              Re: More cost/lb. follies
        Re: NASA Headline News - 03/18/91 (Forwarded)
           Shuttle Status for 03/19/91 (Forwarded)
            Re: Ulysses Update - 03/15/91
          Joust 1 Launch Delayed (Forwarded)
         Re: New World Profits (was Re: Space Profits
               Re: He3 on Moon?

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Date: 19 Mar 91 03:07:32 GMT
From: zephyr.ens.tek.com!tektronix!sequent!crg5![e-mail]  (Nick Szabo)
Subject: Re: More cost/lb. follies

In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] (Vincent Cate) writes:
>
>>* We need 4 orders of magnitude drop from today's costs for space
>>  colonization to be affordable.
>
>Not really.  3 orders of magnitude gets the cost down to business class
>hop across the country for the day or only twice what I would pay
>to go to grandma's for the weekend. ($5,000/lb / 10ee3 * 200 lbs = $1,000)

Unfortuneately:

* we need to add another few hundred pounds per person of life support for
  space travel (depending on the technology)
* without space-originated stuff (like tethers) for upper stages, the
  cost to L-5 is about 4 times the cost to LEO

The four orders of magnitude was based on $4,000 vs. $40 million per person
from Earth surface to L-5.  For a family of four, $16,000 is nearly a year's
after-tax salary for the middle class in developed countries.  Few families
will pay significantly more than that (if they are that rich, life is good
enough on Earth).


>>* Chemical rockets can provide less than an order of magnitude drop
>>  between now and the end of the 21st century
>>[...]
>>Even a factor of 5 is improbable: I will lay bets with any
>>takers that unsubsidized chem rocket costs will never drop below $1,000/lb.
>>(long before 2100 they will be replaced by something better).
>
>Does a chemical rocket launched from a high/fast flying plane count?

What the heck, as long as we throw in the cost of the plane.


>I see no trouble getting a factor of 10 lower in cost by launching a
>mass-produced small rocket from a Mach 6 jet at 100,000 feet in only
>a few years (forget year 2100 stuff).

Well, so far Pegasus has _increased_ cost/lb. somewhat.  The purpose
of Pegasus is better availability, faster turn-around, and much lower
entry-level costs, not cost/lb. reduction.  In other words, Pegasus
is making the statement I am making: while the era of chemical rockets
lasts, it is much more fruitful to work on increasing value/lb. than
to put resources into decreasing cost/lb.


>If this counts, I'm interested
>in the bet (say 15 years and we use 1990 dollars).

You're on.




--
Nick Szabo            [e-mail]
"If you want oil, drill lots of wells" -- J. Paul Getty
The above opinions are my own and not related to those of any
organization I may be affiliated with.

------------------------------

Date: 19 Mar 91 15:52:09 GMT
From: zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!samsung!rex!rouge![e-mail]  (Fraering Philip)
Subject: Re: NASA Headline News - 03/18/91 (Forwarded)

In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] (Ron Baalke) writes:(I should add that he is writing on behalf of Peter Yee,
although I don't know why I should add that. Just trying to avoid confusion,
I suppose - P.F.)



>NASA has terminated the operation of the Dynamics Explorer-1
>(DE-1) spacecraft.  The spacecraft, which acquired the first global
>images of the aurora, was launched on August 3, 1981.  It was
>designed to last three years and to study the coupling of energy,
>electric currents and mass between the Earth's upper atmosphere,
>ionosphere and magnetosphere.  Project scientist Dr. Robert Hoffman
>said the quality and quantity of data returned from DE-1, and a
>companion spacecraft, far exceeded their expectations.  The
>spacecraft was terminated because it had refused to accept commands
>since Nov. 17 and because of operation cost considerations and the
>diminishing value of the data returned.

Wasn't this the spacecraft whose data touched off (or helped touch off)
the mini-comet controversy?

Speaking of which, I ask again: has there been any new evidence for or
against the theory, such as Galileo was possibly (I'm not sure) supposed
to gather?

Phil Fraering
[e-mail]

------------------------------

Date: 19 Mar 91 16:41:55 GMT
From: magnus.acs.ohio-state.edu!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!swrinde!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!jato!mars.jpl.nasa.gov![e-mail]  (Ron Baalke)
Subject: Shuttle Status for 03/19/91 (Forwarded)


          KSC SHUTTLE STATUS REPORT - TUESDAY, MAR. 19, 1991 - 10  a.m.

             STS-37/GAMMA RAY OBSERVATORY - ATLANTIS (OV 104) - PAD 39-A
                                   LAUNCH - APRIL

          WORK IN PROGRESS:
          - Terminal Countdown Demonstration Test began at 8 a.m. today and
          T-0 is set for 11 a.m. tomorrow.
          - Interface verification tests between the orbiter and the  Gamma
          Ray Observatory payload.
          -  Plans to inspect orbiter components in the aft compartment due
          to the water intrusion.

          WORK COMPLETED:
          - Helium signature test of three main engines and main propulsion
          system.

          WORK SCHEDULED:
          - Launch Readiness Review March 21.
          - Flight Readiness Review March 26-27.

                     STS-39/DoD - DISCOVERY (OV 103) - OPF BAY 2
                           LAUNCH - LATE APRIL, EARLY MAY

          WORK IN PROGRESS:
          - Replacement of the  external  tank  door  hinge  housings  with
          modified beefed up housings and cycling of the doors to retest.
          - Thermal protection system operations.

          WORK SCHEDULED:
          - Roll to the Vehicle Assembly Building early next week.

           STS-40/SPACELAB LIFE SCIENCES 1 - COLUMBIA (OV 102) - OPF BAY 1
                                    LAUNCH - MAY

          WORK IN PROGRESS:
          - Testing connections for the payload.
          - Installation of the space shuttle main engines.
          - Tests of the power reactant storage and distribution system.
          - Potable water servicing.
          - Auxiliary power unit water servicing.
          - Orbital maneuvering system pod functional tests.
          - Water spray boiler leak and functional tests.
          - Thermal protection system operations.

          WORK SCHEDULED:
          - Installation of the Spacelab Life Sciences payload into the or-
          biter this weekend.

      ___    _____     ___
     /_ /|  /____/ \  /_ /|      Ron Baalke         | [e-mail]
     | | | |  __ \ /| | | |      Jet Propulsion Lab |
  ___| | | | |__) |/  | | |___   M/S 301-355        | Change is constant.
 /___| | | |  ___/    | |/__ /|  Pasadena, CA 91109 |
 |_____|/  |_|/       |_____|/                      |

------------------------------

Date: 18 Mar 91 15:51:50 GMT
From: elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!jato!mars![e-mail]  (Ron Baalke)
Subject: Re: Ulysses Update - 03/15/91

In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] (Daniel Fischer) writes:
>In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] (Ron Baalke) writes:
>>                     ULYSSES STATUS REPORT
>>                         March 15, 1991
>>[...]  Flight operators do not expect the wobble to
>>return during this phase of the mission because the period of
>>greatest solar activity has now passed.  The next period of solar
>>activity will occur when the spacecraft is in the region of the
>>sun's south pole in 1994.
>
>What is the physics behind this claim? I thought the wobble was induced by
>uneven *heating* of the axial boom - and was has 'solar activity' to do with
>the output of solar heat? The variation of solar luminosity with activity
>is in the promille range!
>
>Also, the statement "the next period of solar activity will occur... in 1994"
>doesn't make sense as we have had the last solar maximum in 1989 and should
>expect a decrease of solar activity til around 1995 before it rises again
>(extrapolating from the last cycle). All this indicates that JPL does mean
>something different when talking about 'solar activity' than what solar
>physics use that term for - but what ???

You are correct on both accounts, the wobble (or nutation) is being caused
by uneven heating, and the 'solar activity' is referred to here is not
linked to the Sun's 11 year cycle.  Ulysses is currently moving away
from the Sun towards Jupiter, and the solar activity is really the amount
of heat that Ulysses is receiving from the Sun.  This solar activity will
continue to diminish until the Jupiter flyby, and will then increase again
as Ulysses approaches the sun again.  When Ulysses is under the south pole
of the sun in 1994, it will be close enough where the nutation is expected
to start appearing again.
      ___    _____     ___
     /_ /|  /____/ \  /_ /|      Ron Baalke         | [e-mail]
     | | | |  __ \ /| | | |      Jet Propulsion Lab |
  ___| | | | |__) |/  | | |___   M/S 301-355        | Change is constant.
 /___| | | |  ___/    | |/__ /|  Pasadena, CA 91109 |
 |_____|/  |_|/       |_____|/                      |

------------------------------

Date: 18 Mar 91 23:40:06 GMT
From: agate!bionet!uwm.edu!caen!sdd.hp.com!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!jato!mars.jpl.nasa.gov![e-mail]  (Ron Baalke)
Subject: Joust 1 Launch Delayed (Forwarded)

Barbara Selby                                                                                                     March 18, 199
Headquarters, Washington, D.C.
(Phone:  [phone])

Rick Mould
Universiby of Alabama-Huntsville
(Phone:  [phone])

George Purvis
Orbital Sciences Corp., Space Data Div., Chandler, Ariz.
(Phone:  [phone])


JOUST 1 LAUNCH ADVISORY


      The launch of Joust 1, a commercial suborbital rocket carrying 10
materials and biotechnology experiments scheduled for March 29, has been
reset for mid-April from Launch Complex 20 at the Cape Canaveral Air Force
Station,  Fla.

      Joust 1 managers are evaluating new vibration data obtained from a
flight with some similar systems and are reassessing the rocket's guidance
system.  A new launch date is expected to be determined during the next week.

      The Joust 1 mission is sponsored by the University of Alabama -
Huntsville Consortium for Materials in Space, a NASA Center for the Commercial
Development of Space.  Orbital Sciences Corp., Space Data Division, Chandler,
Ariz., under a contract with UAH CMDS, will provide the rocket and launch
services
      ___    _____     ___
     /_ /|  /____/ \  /_ /|      Ron Baalke         | [e-mail]
     | | | |  __ \ /| | | |      Jet Propulsion Lab |
  ___| | | | |__) |/  | | |___   M/S 301-355        | Change is constant.
 /___| | | |  ___/    | |/__ /|  Pasadena, CA 91109 |
 |_____|/  |_|/       |_____|/                      |

------------------------------

Date: 13 Mar 91 09:10:00 GMT
From: agate!linus!philabs!ttidca!quad1!bohica!mcws!p0.f851.n102.z1.fidonet.org![e-mail]  (Nick Szabo)
Subject: Re: New World Profits (was Re: Space Profits

From: [e-mail] (Nick Szabo)
Path: wciu!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!swrinde!cs.utexas.edu!rutgers!mit-eddie!uw-beaver!zephyr.ens.tek.com!tektronix!sequent!crg5!szabo
Newsgroups: sci.space
Subject: Re: New World Profits (was Re: Space Profits
Message-ID: <[e-mail]>
Date: 13 Mar 91 01:10:21 GMT
In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] (Jack Dietz) writes:

>This implies that Columbus was exploring what he thought was unprofitable
>land.  In other words, he was using the money of the Spanish crown in
>order to satisfy his desire to explore, not in the interests of the
>royal pair.
>
>Interesting.  If only our explorers could pull something like that
>off, leading Congress on while they encourage exploitation...

It seems NASA already did pull something like this off, with their
1970's promises of Shuttle launch cost reduction.  Did space exploration
profit from the experience?   Many space explorers would strongly
disagreee...


>Could be the start of something useful.

In the short term, to one narrow project.  In the long term, for
space exploration and settlement in general, it could be very harmful.


--
Nick Szabo            [e-mail]
"If you want oil, drill lots of wells" -- J. Paul Getty
The above opinions are my own and not related to those of any
organization I may be affiliated with.


--
: Nick Szabo - via FidoNet node 1:102/851 [phone]
: ARPA/INTERNET: [e-mail]
: UUCP: ...!{elroy!bohica,elroy!wciu,cit-vax!wciu}!mcws!851.0!Nick.Szabo
: Compu$erve: >internet:[e-mail]

------------------------------

Date: 14 Mar 91 11:38:00 GMT
From: agate!linus!philabs!ttidca!quad1!bohica!mcws!p0.f851.n102.z1.fidonet.org![e-mail],
        [e-mail]  (Horowitz, Irwin Kenneth)
Subject: Re: He3 on Moon?

From: [e-mail] (Horowitz, Irwin Kenneth)
Path: wciu!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!usc!jarthur!nntp-server.caltech.edu!romeo.caltech.edu!irwin
Newsgroups: sci.space
Subject: Re: He3 on Moon?
Message-ID: <[e-mail]>
Date: 14 Mar 91 03:38:37 GMT
In article <[e-mail]>, [e-mail] (Joe Cain) writes...
>Does anyone know the origin of the weird sounding article that just
>appeared in the March 15 "Washington Spectator?"
>*******************************************************************
>..A new "gold rush" is expected on the moon, where large amounts of a
>powerful fuel, a hundred times more precious than gold, have been
>discovered. "Lunar soil is rich in Helium-3 (He-3) which costs $1,000
>a gram," reports <The Machinist>. "Some 100 million tons of He-3 lie
>on the lunar surface. A mere 55,000 pounds of He-3 in a fusion reactor
>(which scientists expect to build within 15 years) would electrify the
>entire U.S. for a year. Nuclear fusion which powers the sun releases
>energy by joining atoms together with almost no radioactive waste.
>********************************************************************
>
>    The last time I dropped a note to this otherwise political
>newspaper about some outlandish scientific sounding article, the
>defense was that it was published in some other journal!
>
>I have read that Mercury has a wisp of atmosphere with some He, Na and
>O from the solar wind and/or some vaporization of impacting bodies
>(maybe a little K), but 3He??? The only gases I have read about in the
>lunar regolith involve a little H and He from the solar wind.
>
>Maybe the little green men did it?
>
>
>Joseph Cain        [e-mail]
>[e-mail]        scri::cain
Indeed, Joe, you pointed out the answer in your last line...it is from the
solar wind that the Moon has accumulated all that He3 (4.5 Gyr worth!).
It is left as an exercise for the reader to estimate the total mass of He3
that would be on the lunar surface...:-).

I have been aware of this potential resource for a few years now (ever since
my friend, Jonathon Post, gave me a report from the In Situ Resource
Utilization workshop that detailed the possible usage of He3 for fusion
reactions here on Earth.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Irwin Horowitz                        |"Suppose they went nowhere?"-McCoy
Astronomy Department                  |"Then this will be your big chance
California Institute of Technology    | to get away from it all!"-Kirk
[e-mail]               |       from STII:TWOK
[e-mail]                 |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------


--
: Horowitz, Irwin Kenneth - via FidoNet node 1:102/851 [phone]
: ARPA/INTERNET: Horowitz,[e-mail]
: UUCP: ...!{elroy!bohica,elroy!wciu,cit-vax!wciu}!mcws!851.0!Horowitz,.Irwin.Kenneth
: Compu$erve: >internet:Horowitz,[e-mail]

------------------------------

End of SPACE Digest V13 #290
*******************